Paul M. Banas on Consumer Insights, Marketing Research, and the Digital Media Landscape
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Category — Prediction Markets

More Prediction Market Resouces

The best way to see how prediction markets work is to see them in action. Below are some actual markets that can give you a sense of what exactly prediction markets are and how they can be used to generate insights and forecasts.

  1. “And the Oscar for Best Picture Goes to….”: the Hollywood Stock Exchange is one of the most established prediction markets. In 2006 it correctly predicted 7 out of 8 of the major Oscar awards.
  2. “And the next President of the United States is….”: the Iowa Electronic Market is one of the oldest and most well known prediction markets out there, allowing participants to purchase futures in events in areas such as politics and macroeconomics.
  3. “Our revenue from New Products in 2008 will be….”: Inkling Markets can help companies establish internal prediction markets to help in such areas as business forecasting and new product development. Companies such as Cisco, Chrysler, and Abbott Labs have use Inkling to establish their own internal prediction markets.

November 8, 2007   No Comments

Prediction Market Resources

In the “Wisdom of Crowds”, Jame Surowiecki writes about decision or prediction markets as tools for aggregating opinions through a form of speculation or betting. They can be used to predict many future events, including quarterly sales of a new product, presidential candidates, or who will win the best actress Oscar.

As I’ve tried to come up to speed on prediction markets and their application to marketing research, I’ve come across several resources that have been very useful. Two blogs in particular stand out as being very topical and focused on prediction market applications, rather than just theory:

  1. Mercury’s Blog: this blog by Jed Christiansen has a couple of excellent videos that can quickly bring anyone up to speed on prediction market applications.
  2. Midas Oracle: more like a community focused on prediction markets, rather than just a single blog. Lots of interesting posts.

October 29, 2007   No Comments